In the turbulent landscape of African politics, Zimbabwe’s ruling party, ZANU PF, has often been scrutinized for its actions and motivations. Recently, there has been speculation about whether ZANU PF might intervene militarily in Mozambique due to the ongoing instability in the neighboring country. However, a closer examination of ZANU PF’s history and interests suggests that such intervention is highly unlikely.

ZANU PF’s past actions speak volumes about its priorities and objectives. In the late 1990s, the party swiftly deployed troops to the Democratic Republic of Congo to secure access to valuable minerals, demonstrating its willingness to use military force to serve its interests. However, the situation in Mozambique presents a different set of challenges. Unlike the Congo, Mozambique does not offer easily accessible strategic minerals that align with ZANU PF’s modus operandi of primitive accumulation and self-enrichment.

One might argue that the perceived pressure for ZANU PF to intervene in Mozambique is driven by economic concerns. After all, a stable Mozambique is crucial for the Beira corridor, upon which Zimbabwe heavily relies for its imports and exports. However, this assumption misunderstands ZANU PF’s true objectives. The party has thrived in an environment where it maintains control over the economy, often using food aid schemes and land reform initiatives to secure its power. A robust, independent, and innovative private sector that could potentially create a politically aware middle class poses a threat to ZANU PF’s grip on power. Therefore, a fully functional economy does not serve ZANU PF’s interests, as it hinders its power retention strategies.

When ZANU PF intervened in Mozambique in the past, it cited reasons such as protecting Mozambique’s sovereignty and ensuring the security of the Beira corridor. Yet, the current crisis in Mozambique, characterized by terrorist activities, dwarfs the Matsanga menace that prompted ZANU PF’s previous intervention. Despite the increased severity of the situation, ZANU PF has chosen to turn a blind eye, conveniently forgetting its responsibility to maintain Mozambique’s national sovereignty and reinforce its own national security.

ZANU PF’s excuse for its reluctance to intervene alone in Mozambique is that it prefers collective action through SADC (Southern African Development Community). However, history shows that ZANU PF is not averse to unilateral action, as it previously intervened in the Congo without SADC’s approval. This selective amnesia raises doubts about ZANU PF’s commitment to international regulatory standards, especially when its interests are at stake.

The pressure on ZANU PF is primarily rooted in the underperformance of Zimbabwe’s economy, characterized by high inflation, budget deficits, and rampant corruption. The party relies on the economic system to sustain its activities, and diverting resources to military endeavors would exacerbate the country’s economic woes. Such a move could trigger a chain reaction that threatens ZANU PF’s hold on power, potentially leading to loss of plundered wealth and prosecution for human rights abuses.

In the past, ZANU PF justified its intervention in Mozambique by citing the need to maintain stability in the region. However, the motivations have evolved, driven by the prospect of accessing Mozambique’s oil and gas reserves. Despite the potentially lucrative rewards, ZANU PF lacks the expertise and resources necessary for successful military engagement in the complex Mozambique conflict. It is ill-prepared for such a task.

In conclusion, ZANU PF’s reluctance to intervene in Mozambique is not due to imagined pressure but rather a result of its inability to extract oil and gas through plunder, as it did with minerals in the Congo. The party’s priorities and motivations make it unlikely to preempt national sovereignty and security threats in Mozambique, even if it means risking instability in the region. Understanding ZANU PF’s true interests is essential for unraveling the complexities of African politics and predicting its future actions.